Part 1: Return to the Office Series - Predicting the Return to the Office


Our thesis in predicting the return to the office is predicated on the following assumptions: • The Delta strain represents the final wave of the pandemic; no major virus setbacks from this point forward (or at least not with the same virulence) and the vaccines maintain their effectiveness, potentially requiring a booster shot. • COVID-19 projections are reasonably accurate and that when new daily infections reach low levels for a sustained period, they will correlate with a gradual return to the office. We rely on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent health research center, for COVID-19 projections. • Current vaccination programs will continue at pace, and herd resiliency forecasts will be reasonably accurate. According to most public health experts, at least 70% of the population will need to be either infected or vaccinated to achieve herd resiliency. • Full, in-person school learning will return to percentages resembling the pre- pandemic norm and will be sustained after herd resiliency has been achieved.


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