Part 1: Return to the Office Series - Predicting the Return to the Office

ASIA PACIFIC

At the regional level, IHME forecasts that the Asia Pacific caseload will trend at around 950,000 per day, or around 440 per million in population. This forecast includes confirmed and unconfirmed cases, which explains the comparatively high number. The forecast is also an acknowledgement of both the current low levels of vaccination across the region and the likelihood that getting vaccinations to needed levels will require at least until the end of the year. VACCINE UPDATE For the most part, vaccination programs in Asia Pacific have lagged the rest of the world. In part, this is a reflection of the region doing well in battling the initial wave of the virus, but it also points to the difficulties in securing sufficient vaccine doses. Notwithstanding this slow start, vaccination rollout has accelerated dramatically in recent months. Over 70% of the population in Mainland China is fully vaccinated. In Singapore, the situation is even better with 77% fully vaccinated. In the remaining mature economies, full vaccination rates average between 35% and 60%, with Japan leading the pack. The overall figure for India masks the urban-rural divide, with vaccination rates much higher across major cities. Vaccinations numbers are rapidly increasing in India—more than 180 million doses were administered in August alone. In the emerging economies of South East Asia, vaccination remains comparatively low at around 15% fully vaccinated. However, it should be noted that the situation has rapidly improved in Malaysia from 3% fully vaccinated in early June to 57% in mid-September, which highlights what can be achieved when enough vaccines can be secured.

MALAYSIA MILESTONE: (full vaccinations) EARLY JUNE: 3% MID-SEPTEMBER: 57%

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