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U.S. Real GDP by Scenario AR (%)

Firm

When back at 19Q4 Levels

20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4

21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

2020

2021

Moody’s Baseline

-8.0

-30.2

16.7

1.1

2.2

2.7

7.6

8.2

-5.8

2.3

22Q2

Short U

Moody’s Downside (S3) Moody’s Downside (S4)

Long U

-8.0

-33.3

10.4

-2.8

-1.7

0.9

4.2

7.0

-7.5

-1.2

23Q1

-8.0

-39.7

9.7

-4.1

-2.8

-1.5

1.8

3.4

-9.3

-3.4

24Q2

Oxford Baseline

Sharp-V

-1.1

-31.7

8.8

23.6

15.7

4.4

2.4

1.1

-4.0

7.8

21Q1

Oxford Downside

-1.1

-40.3

-25.5

18.8

17.6

13.2

14.6

4.9

-10.8

4.6

23Q2

CCAR Severely Adverse*

-5.3

-9.9

-7.6

-5.3

-4.1

-1.6

-0.4

2.9

-3.8

-3.8

23Q4

Release date of forecasts: Moody’s – April 10, 2020 Oxford Economics – April 8, 2020 CCAR – February 6, 2020

Source: Moody’s Analytics, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Board *Description of Fed scenario, which includes 35% decline in CRE prices and credit stress: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/bcreg20200206a1.pdf

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