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U.S. Real GDP by Scenario AR (%)
Firm
When back at 19Q4 Levels
20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4
21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4
2020
2021
Moody’s Baseline
-8.0
-30.2
16.7
1.1
2.2
2.7
7.6
8.2
-5.8
2.3
22Q2
Short U
Moody’s Downside (S3) Moody’s Downside (S4)
Long U
-8.0
-33.3
10.4
-2.8
-1.7
0.9
4.2
7.0
-7.5
-1.2
23Q1
-8.0
-39.7
9.7
-4.1
-2.8
-1.5
1.8
3.4
-9.3
-3.4
24Q2
Oxford Baseline
Sharp-V
-1.1
-31.7
8.8
23.6
15.7
4.4
2.4
1.1
-4.0
7.8
21Q1
Oxford Downside
-1.1
-40.3
-25.5
18.8
17.6
13.2
14.6
4.9
-10.8
4.6
23Q2
CCAR Severely Adverse*
-5.3
-9.9
-7.6
-5.3
-4.1
-1.6
-0.4
2.9
-3.8
-3.8
23Q4
Release date of forecasts: Moody’s – April 10, 2020 Oxford Economics – April 8, 2020 CCAR – February 6, 2020
Source: Moody’s Analytics, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Board *Description of Fed scenario, which includes 35% decline in CRE prices and credit stress: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/bcreg20200206a1.pdf
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