MyCity: LONDON

04

06

Redevelopment will lead to the growth in scale and importance of certain town centres. Outside central London, London urban topography today reflects the significant suburbanisation of 100 years ago, dominated by terrace housing and latterly, post-war estates. The remaining large-scale development sites are reducing in number. A number of Opportunity Areas, such as Romford, Bromley, Canada Water, Greenwich, Euston, Kings Cross and Earls Court will all be substantially complete by 2040, which will focus significant new growth opportunities on the outer London ‘town centres’ consumed over the past 300 years by London’s expansion. Intensive new developments in places such as Croydon offer the potential to accommodate significant new multi-generational housing, whilst also delivering regeneration in a way not seen in outer London for a generation. With significant levels of homeworking, less well-connected town centres will grow in attractiveness and become epicentres for mixed lifestyle local communities although development will in many cases deliver ‘less’ retail and office space. The economic base will diversify. London is a global megacity. However, it is also one of the least economically diversified cities in the world. Thankfully for London, it picked a winning horse in the form of the finance sector. By 2040, however, we envisage that London’s economic base will have broadened. In particular we are optimistic about London’s potential to capture a wave of high-tech growth industries that will continue to expand over the next 20 years. This includes life sciences, artificial intelligence and high-tech manufacturing operations which will drive a significant percentage of real estate demand by 2040. This will further intensify existing clusters - such as the Euston Kings Cross Knowledge Hub- but also create new clusters Much of London’s potential in this area will hinge on its ability to attract and retain young talent; and we envisage a significant growth of London’s tertiary education provision and ancillary student housing provision – as well as deliver affordable, suitable accommodation to retain early-career talent. Clusters will continue to develop in conjunction with the public sector in Euston, Bloomsbury and White City, with both new and international academic institutions expected to target London by 2040. 05

London’s housing stock will expand geographically and in quantum. Whilst population growth in the UK will have softened by 2040, London is likely to continue to bear a disproportion of this growth; mainly due to international migration, with consequential impacts on London’s demographics. Most of this growth will be delivered in large outer London schemes or through New Towns within the wider South East such as The Green Quarter in Southall or Ebbsfleet Garden City. However, there remains a significant opportunity and challenge to address London’s major council estates, many of which have stagnated from lack of investment. Much has been learned about regeneration in the last 20 years, and we remain optimistic that future schemes will balance well the needs of existing residents with new ones, when redeveloping social housing, including ensuring that regeneration does not lead to lack of affordability. Despite resource pressures in 2023, the public sector will need to play an active role in housing delivery by 2040, supplemented by a growing for-profit social housing sector. Spatial needs will continue to evolve, with the PBSA sector growing significantly to house the city’s future talent; new high-density housing more adequately addressing the needs of families, with green space provision, and home workers, with either dedicated or shared workspaces built into scheme design. The highly amenitised central zone of London will become increasingly attractive for empty nesters, with new senior housing products surrounding the central zone. The ecosystem of the city will expand. Remote and hybrid working brings a much broader range of actors into London’s economic ecosystem. Regular commuter zones that previously stretched to Guildford, Stevenage, and Tunbridge Wells, could by 2040 include Leeds, Birmingham and Bournemouth, off the back of significant infrastructure investment. At this point central London becomes not just a weekly destination for many Londoners, but also a destination (physically or virtually) for a large cross-section of the UK. As the satisfaction of London’s residential needs become more nationally dispersed, the Green Belt could realistically remain intact. London’s influence and workforce capacity – and in turn, productivity - will also increasingly be delivered abroad, with connected global teams become a larger part of the working world. London will increasingly need to fight for talent with European and global cities. 07

68

69 MYCITY / LONDON |