MyCity: LONDON

For most of recorded history, the city has served as the beating heart of civilisation, and the engine room of human advancement. Our economies, our infrastructure, our communities and our real estate are all built on the foundation of our cities; so much so that it is difficult to conceive otherwise. However, the past couple of years has laid bare undercurrents that threaten this foundation and offer new opportunities. These could have significant implications for society and for real estate in the future. By mapping out the certainties of automation, economy, population, virtualisation, and environmental changes, we are able to analyse their impacts on our cities. This process has enabled us to develop four distinct scenarios that delve into the potential outcomes of urbanisation and de-urbanisation. MyCity considers how these global megatrends will drive change at the local level; and creates a vision for what it means for our real estate and our communities, with deep consideration for the past of these cities. MyCity unpacks Cushman & Wakefield’s vision for the future of six UK cities: LONDON, BIRMINGHAM, BRISTOL, MANCHESTER, LEEDS and EDINBURGH, and analyses how they are positioned to manage the challenges and opportunities ahead. Our local experts and research leads have teamed up to present a clear vision for each city in 2040, as well as outline series of call to actions for investors, developers, occupiers and local authorities in order to maximise the success of each city.

OUR FUTURE VISION OF LONDON

THE WEST END WILL BECOME A 21 ST CITY PLAYGROUND 01

THE ECOSYSTEM OF THE CITY WILL EXPAND 07

This will become an internationally acclaimed playground for both Londoners and tourists, with exciting vibrant uses and entertainment spilling into the public realm, overlayed with digital and augmented reality experiences.

Remote and hybrid working brings a much broader range of actors into London’s economic ecosystem. Regular commuter zones that previously stretched to Guildford, Stevenage, and Tunbridge Wells, could by 2040 include Leeds, Birmingham and Bournemouth, off the back of significant infrastructure investment.

THE CITY WILL REMAIN THE UK’S LARGEST OFFICE MARKET 02

SMALLER BUT MORE COMMON PATCHES OF GREEN AND BLUE SPACE WILL BE UNLOCKED ACROSS THE CITY 08

The quality of the office offer in the core will increase with an increased focus on wellbeing and carbon spend, and produce a tidemark with weaker stock which will struggle to remain relevant. The City’s office stock will have a greater weighting to flexible uses, incorporating both contractual, temporal and physically flexible attributes.

Central and Inner London will see a proliferation of urban and vertical farming uses, especially with regard to obsolescent and awkward space.

ON-DEMAND AND MICRO MOBILITY WILL BE KEY TO THE NEW TRANSPORT LANDSCAPE 09

CANARY WHARF WILL BECOME A CITY CENTRE IN ITS OWN RIGHT 03

New fine grain modes, particularly a new breed of electric on-demand bikes, will become a much more substantial way of navigating central London, with ULEZ potentially tightened further. Major rail hubs will bear more pressure in the mid-week peak, as London’s ecosystem widens.

As population growth continues to be absorbed at pace in East London, Canary Wharf will become a focal point for these communities. The transition already taking place from a day-time commuter destination, to a 24-hour live, work, play location will be complete.

REDEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO THE GROWTH IN SCALE AND IMPORTANCE OF CERTAIN TOWN CENTRES 04

LONDON’S INFRASTRUCTURE WILL BE BETTER UTILISED AND MODERNISED WITH ADDITIONAL CAPACITY 10

A number of Opportunity Areas, such as Romford, Bromley, Canada Water, Greenwich, Euston, Kings Cross and Earls Court will all be substantially complete by 2040, which will focus significant new growth opportunities on the outer London ‘town centres’ consumed over the past 300 years by London’s expansion.

This will include the better use of the Thames and even possibly canals. London’s digital infrastructure will also be upgraded, with IoT and AI being used to manage congestion issues, increase local democracy, and improve the efficiency of public service delivery.

THERE WILL BE A MORE UNIFIED APPROACH TO GOVERNANCE ACROSS THE CITY 11

THE ECONOMIC BASE WILL DIVERSIFY 05

By 2040, we envisage a more unified public sector approach in London, including more formalised partnerships between the boroughs, a strengthened Mayor’s office / GLA, and potentially the emergence of a body to manage the public estate more comprehensively.

Life sciences, artificial intelligence and high-tech manufacturing operations which will drive a significant percentage of real estate demand by 2040.

LONDON’S HOUSING STOCK WILL EXPAND GEOGRAPHICALLY AND IN QUANTUM 06

LONDON’S BUILDINGS AND LIFESTYLE WILL BE ATTUNED TO SUSTAINABILITY 12

Most of this growth will be delivered in large outer London schemes or through new towns within the wider South East such as The Green Quarter in Southall or Ebbsfleet Garden City. Spatial needs will continue to evolve, with the PBSA sector growing significantly to house the city’s future talent; new high-density housing more adequately addressing the needs of families, with green space provision, and home workers, with either dedicated or shared workspaces built into scheme design.

By 2040, we will see the widescale deployment of new construction methods and materials, such as CLT, zero carbon cement, and graphene, will create a large swathe of real estate that is net zero carbon in operation. People will move less and with more purpose. 15-minute neighbourhoods in new town centres, combined with hybrid working will ameliorate the need for unpurposed travel.

WELCOME TO LONDON 2040

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MYCITY / LONDON |