MyCity Bristol

12 FORCES SHAPING CITIES OF THE FUTURE

The following 12 forces will to different degrees impact on the city of 2040. This table assesses the trend, and relevant factors, and then makes an assessment of the potential impact to status quo and the certainty with which we can judge the outcome. We bake in ‘high impact certainties’ of environment, automation and social change into our hypothesis, and then use the ‘critical uncertainties’ of urbanisation and virtualisation to explore scenarios.

FORCE

DIRECTION

IMPACT

CERTAIN

M

H

ECONOMY

MULTIPLE CYCLES / LOW RATES / SKEW TO THE OLD / STRUCTURAL SHIFT

L

H

L M

M

M

POPULATION

GROWTH SLOWING OR NEGATIVE / AGEING / INORGANIC

L

H

L

H

H

L

URBANISATION

SLOWING OR NEGATIVE FOR LARGE CITIES - INCREASINGLY YOUNG

L M

M H

M

M

MOBILITY

PT GAIN SHARE / LONG LEAD FOR INFRA / FINE-GRAIN INNOV / MAAS

L

H

L

H

H

H

AUTOMATION

TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT / NEW ROLES / PRODUCTIVITY

L M

L M

H

L

VIRTUALISATION

E-COMM / WFH / LEISURE EXPERIENCES / AUGMENTED

L M

M H

M

L

NEW TECH

5G / IoT / CLOUD COMPUTING / BIOMETRIC

L

H

M H

M

M

HEALTH

COVID / NEXT COVID? / ANTIBIOTICS / LATER LIFE CARE / OBESITY

L

H

L

H

H

H

ENVIRONMENT

WARMING / FLOODING / SOCIAL RESPONSE / NEW ENERGY

L M

L M

H

H

SOCIAL

YOUNGER FOR LONGER / RENTING VS BUYING / DIVERSITY

L M

L M

M

M H

SOCIAL JUSTICE

ACTIVISM / CORPORATE ETHICS / MINORITY REPRESENTATION / EQUITY

L

H

L

M

M

POLITICS

EASTERN SHIFT / BREXIT / POPULAR POLARISATION / PROTECTIONISM

L

H

L

H

38

39 MYCITY / BRISTOL |