My City Birmingham

12 FORCES SHAPING CITIES OF THE FUTURE

The following 12 forces will to different degrees impact on the city of 2040. This table assesses the trend, and relevant factors, and then makes an assessment of the potential impact to status quo and the certainty with which we can judge the outcome. We bake in ‘high impact certainties’ of environment, automation and social change into our hypothesis, and then use the ‘critical uncertainties’ of urbanisation and virtualisation to explore scenarios.

FORCE

DIRECTION

IMPACT

CERTAIN

M

H

MULTIPLE CYCLES / LOW RATES / SKEW TO THE OLD / STRUCTURAL SHIFT

L

H

L M

ECONOMY

M

M

GROWTH SLOWING OR NEGATIVE / AGEING / INORGANIC

L

H

L

H

POPULATION

H

L

SLOWING OR NEGATIVE FOR LARGE CITIES, INCREASINGLY YOUNG

L M

M H

URBANISATION

M

M

PT GAIN SHARE / LONG LEAD FOR INFRA / FINE-GRAIN INNOV / MAAS

L

H

L

H

MOBILITY

H

H

TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT / NEW ROLES / PRODUCTIVITY

L M

L M

AUTOMATION

H

L

E-COMM / WFH / LEISURE EXPERIENCES / AUGMENTED

L M

M H

VIRTUALISATION

M

L

5G / IoT / CLOUD COMPUTING / BIOMETRIC

L

H

M H

NEW TECH

M

M

COVID / NEXT COVID? / ANTIBIOTICS / LATER LIFE CARE / OBESITY

L

H

L

H

HEALTH

H

H

WARMING / FLOODING / SOCIAL RESPONSE / NEW ENERGY

L M

L M

ENVIRONMENT

H

H

YOUNGER FOR LONGER / RENTING VS BUYING / DIVERSITY

L M

L M

SOCIAL

M

M H

ACTIVISM / CORPORATE ETHICS / MINORITY REPRESENTATION / EQUITY

L

H

L

SOCIAL JUSTICE

M

M

EASTERN SHIFT / BREXIT / POPULAR POLARISATION / PROTECTIONISM

L

H

L

H

POLITICS

40

41

MYCITY / BIRMINGHAM |