Where Do European Property Values Go From Here?

Significant Increases in Yields Mild Recession

MSCI Yields: Historical and Projected

In the mild recession scenario (C&W baseline), yields move out across all property sectors in the forecast period, most acutely in the 2023-2024 period. Towards the end of the forecast period, as the 10-year government bond yields begin to trend down and risk premia declines, yields for offices and industrial are expected to compress while retail yields are expected to stablise. Industrial is expected to witness outward movement in yields, relative to the compression seen over 2017-2021.

Forecast

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 Office

2012

2013

2014 Industrial

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Retail

Source: MSCI, Cushman & Wakefield Research