Where Do European Property Values Go From Here?

Slowdown in NOI Growth, With Industrial Remaining Positive Mild Recession

MSCI NOI Growth: Historical and Projected (Q4-on-Q4 percentage change)

6%

Forecast

In our baseline scenario which assumes a mild recession, NOI growth decelerates across all product types, only remaining positive for the industrial sector. Despite the slowdown in NOI, it is expected to fare better across most property types relative to past recessions largely due to the strong leasing fundamentals entering this recession.

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

-10%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 Office

2012

2013

2014 Industrial

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Retail

Source: MSCI, Cushman & Wakefield Research