Where Do European Property Values Go From Here?

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The Scenarios

C&W Baseline

Scenario 1: *Soft Landing (30% probability)

Scenario 2: Upside Growth (5% probability)

Scenario 3: Mild Recession (50% probability)

Scenario 4: Stagflation (5% probability)

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Euro area Economy

Real GDP

5.3 2.9 0.9 1.8 1.7

Real GDP

5.3 2.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.1

Real GDP

5.3 3.4 2.9 2.3 2.0

Real GDP

5.3 2.7 0.0 1.8 2.4

Employment Growth, mils

3.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.5

3.3 1.2 -0.6 -1.2 0.2

3.3 1.8 -0.2 0.3 0.4

3.3 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.4

Unemployment Rate 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3

Unemployment Rate 7.6 7.8 8.4 9.1 9.1

Unemployment Rate 7.6 7.4 7.8 7.8 7.6

Unemployment Rate 7.6 7.1 6.9 7.0 7.1

Inflation

2.4 7.2 3.5 2.3 1.9

Inflation

2.4 7.4 5.5 2.3 1.1

Inflation

2.4 7.2 3.1 2.1 1.9

Inflation

2.4 7.1 3.0 1.5 1.8

10-year Gov't Bond 0.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8

10-year Gov't Bond

0.2 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.9

10-year Gov't Bond

0.2 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.6

10-year Gov't Bond 0.2 2.7 3.5 3.3 3.2

Source: Moody’s Analytics adjusted by Cushman & Wakefield Research; *Soft landing refers to the consensus forecast as of July 2022 Note: Probabilities do not add to 100% because there are chances of other scenarios occurring, such as a recession that is not mild, but also not consistent with stagflation.

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