European Hospitality Sector Outlook 2024 - Extended Version
HOTEL ROOMS SUPPLY GROWTH - KEY MARKETS IN EUROPE
PARIS
ROME
MILAN
BERLIN
LISBON
DUBLIN
VIENNA
ATHENS
MADRID
PRAGUE
LONDON
WARSAW
ISTANBUL
BRUSSELS
BUDAPEST
FRANKFURT
BARCELONA
AMSTERDAM
MANCHESTER
COPENHAGEN
6.5%
6.1%
5.6%
5.3%
5.0%
4.5%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.2%
4.1%
1.5%
4.0%
1.8%
1.7%
0.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.6%
1.3%
1.3%
3.1%
3.3%
1.2%
3.2%
2.9%
3.0%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
0.6%
0.5%
2.4%
2.2%
-0.3%
SEP. 2022-23 (% CHANGE)
SEP. 2019-23 (% CAGR)
Source: C&W Research
HOTEL ROOM SUPPLY FORECAST (CAGR 2023-2025)
PARIS
ROME
MILAN
BERLIN
TOP 20 2.10%
LISBON
DUBLIN
VIENNA
ATHENS
MADRID
PRAGUE
LONDON
WARSAW
MARKETS
ISTANBUL
UTILITIES HAVE BEEN THE MOST GROWING HOTEL OPERATING EXPENSE (YTD OCT 2023 VS YTD OCT 2019, % CHANGE) UTILITIES % % PAYROLL COST OF SALES
BRUSSELS
BUDAPEST
FRANKFURT
BARCELONA
AMSTERDAM
MANCHESTER
COPENHAGEN
5.8%
%
TOTAL EXPENSE
%
4.2%
4.2%
3.8%
3.4%
1.3%
1.4%
19
3.0%
3.0%
32
1.1%
1.1%
111
112
112
1.0%
1.0%
17
27
2.7%
2.5%
27
0.5%
1.9%
14
14
24
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
22
100
12
21
21
102
102
11
11
20
6
6
7
9
13
8
11
11
Source: C&W Research
18
102
17
4
6
6
15
4
13
1
51
50
49
47
9
46
10
10
44
-4
8
15
6
-6
-7
3
-19
• The supply squeeze is also reinforced by the increasing crackdown of authorities on short term rentals, in order to avoid the displacement of residents from city centres and protect the long-term rental market. Barcelona banned all short-term room rentals in private homes, while other cities such as London, Paris, Amsterdam, Vienna or Copenhagen capped the number of nights a property can be rented out in a year. Austria plans to introduce the cap in 2024, and Italy is also considering tightening rules nationwide.
Also, taxes are being chased more forcefully, reducing the commercial attractiveness of the rental business. While the enforcement of the regulations continues to be challenging, authorities are escalating their efforts, deploying technology, that are becoming effective in stopping the short-term supply growth, curbing the growing professionalization of the market and even reducing the number of entire apartments listed for short term rental by up to 30% xvi .
MUNICH PARIS
PARIS
PARIS
PARIS
MILAN
MUNICH MILAN
MILAN
MILAN
BERLIN
BERLIN
BERLIN
BERLIN
WARSAW DUBLIN
DUBLIN
DUBLIN
DUBLIN
VIENNA
VIENNA
VIENNA
LONDON EDINBURGH VIENNA
MUNICH
MUNICH
LONDON
LONDON
LONDON
WARSAW
WARSAW
WARSAW
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
BRUSSELS
BRUSSELS
BRUSSELS
BRUSSELS
MANCHESTER EDINBURGH
EDINBURGH
EDINBURGH
BARCELONA
BARCELONA
BARCELONA
BARCELONA
AMSTERDAM
AMSTERDAM
AMSTERDAM
MANCHESTER
MANCHESTER
MANCHESTER
Source: HotStats (based on expenses per available room (PAR) in EUR, sample of full-service branded hotels in city centres, Other Expenses not displayed but included in Total Expense)
• One of the best news for hotel owners and investors is that hotel supply growth remains constrained in most markets, underpinned by elevated construction and financing costs. So far, the total hotel room capacity in Europe grew only by 2.1% (YTD Sep 2023 vs YTD Sep 2022), with the strongest gains recorded in Madrid, Paris and Rome, fortunately also accompanied by strong demand growth. Our research indicates that supply growth in the top 20 largest European markets from the rest of 2023 to 2025 is projected to reach approximately 56,000 rooms , representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
of 2.1%. Dublin, Frankfurt, Vienna and Lisbon are expected to grow most rapidly, while cities like Barcelona, Amsterdam and Milan have minimal hotel construction underway. In specific markets such as UK, a number of hotels are being used for asylum seekers, which helped to constrain supply in 2022 and 2023, but this use is likely to reduce in 2024. In UK, this may return 380 hotels xv back to market, with estimated 2-4% supply increase mostly at lower-end class. Also the conversion of obsolete office buildings into hotels is starting to emerge, but it is unlikely to be a significant supply driver due to its complexity and the limited number of suitable office buildings.
One of the best news for hotel owners and investors is that hotel supply growth remains constrained in most markets.
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16 HOTELS OUTLOOK 2024
THE TIDE IS TURNING AMALGAMATED | 17
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