Cushman & Wakefield RETHINKING: The Shape Of Real Estate 2040

QUANTIFYING CHANGE

FORCE

DIRECTION

IMPACT

CERTAIN

M

H

ECONOMY

MULTIPLE CYCLES / LOW RATES / SKEW TO THE OLD / STRUCTURAL SHIFT

L

H

L M

M

M

POPULATION

GROWTH SLOWING OR NEGATIVE / AGEING / INORGANIC

L

H

L

H

THE PROCESS

H

L

URBANISATION

SLOWING OR NEGATIVE FOR LARGE CITIES, INCREASINGLY YOUNG

L M

M H

M

M

MOBILITY

PT GAIN SHARE / LONG LEAD FOR INFRA / FINE-GRAIN INNOV / MAAS

L

H

L

H

In constructing a view for the future real estate landscape, we applied the 12 key forces identified within the our Future of Cities vision that will underpin structural changes through to 2040. The table on the right lists these forces and assesses relevant factors, and then makes an assessment of the potential impact to status quo and the certainty with which we can judge the outcome. We bake in ‘high impact certainties’ of environment, automation and social change into our hypothesis. This forms our framework for modelling forward future real estate requirements across the UK.

H

H

AUTOMATION

TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT / NEW ROLES / PRODUCTIVITY

L M

L M

H

L

VIRTUALISATION

E-COMM / WFH / LEISURE EXPERIENCES / AUGMENTED

L M

M H

M

L

NEW TECH

5G / IoT / CLOUD COMPUTING / BIOMETRIC

L

H

M H

M

M

HEALTH

COVID / NEXT COVID? / ANTIBIOTICS / LATER LIFE CARE / OBESITY

L

H

L

H

H

H

ENVIRONMENT

WARMING / FLOODING / SOCIAL RESPONSE / NEW ENERGY

L M

L M

H

H

SOCIAL

YOUNGER FOR LONGER / RENTING VS BUYING / DIVERSITY

L M

L M

M

M H

SOCIAL JUSTICE

ACTIVISM / CORPORATE ETHICS / MINORITY REPRESENTATION / EQUITY

L

H

L

M

M

POLITICS

EASTERN SHIFT / BREXIT / POPULAR POLARISATION / PROTECTIONISM

L

H

L

H

RETHINKING: THE SHAPE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE UK

5

CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

QUANTI

FYING

CHANGE