Cushman & Wakefield RETHINKING: The Shape Of Real Estate 2040

There is a clear need to increase the delivery of senior housing in the UK.

In order to understand what impacts this will have on the market, we have modelled two seniors housing development volume scenarios. Forecast A continues with the current delivery rate of 6,300 seniors housing units a year, assuming 90% occupancy of seniors housing and 1.33 residents per unit, and taking the care home forecasts numbers from this research. This results in an additional 107, 100 seniors housing units, amounting to a 17.6% increase from 2023 and with 5% of over 65’s living in seniors housing by 2040. Forecast B, delivering the Mayhew and BPF committee’s recommended target of 50,000 seniors housing units a year, and applying the same assumptions as above, would result in an additional 850,000 seniors housing units, and 10% of over 65’s living in seniors housing. This would deliver a considerable annualised growth rate of 6.0% in terms of floorspace.

Growth in seniors housing is expected to continue to evolve in London and the South East first, and as confidence increases in the market and schemes become more viable, they will advance in other UK regions. More affordable seniors living options are also expected to become available, especially with the growth in for-profit RPs.

RETHINKING: THE SHAPE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE UK

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