Cushman & Wakefield RETHINKING: The Shape Of Real Estate 2040

Improvements in public health through wellbeing focused lifestyles may help to delay some of the impact, however our increasing ageing population will ultimately outweigh this factor and is the primary driver of demand for care homes going forward. Applying the demand scale for care homes by age bracket to population forecasts, the overall requirement for care homes is expected to increase by 44.8% by 2040 from 2023 levels. This is a substantial increase and reflects the urgency of delivery of additional care homes capacity in the coming years.

Those numbers might be greater as the number of people with dementia is increasing as people are living longer. Alzheimer’s Society estimate that by 2040, there will be 1.6 million people in the UK living with dementia, up from around 900,000 people today. Affordability drivers will also impact the growth in care homes. Currently the pipeline is biased towards the South and East of the UK driven by more affluent households and their ability to pay for private care. Government support will be key to driving growth in care homes in other parts of the UK. Additionally, obsolescence will also be a major factor in the medium-term, with many facilities over 20 years old and not meeting the increasing standards required in corridor width, bathroom facilities and inadequate CQC ratings.




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