Cloud & Data Center Convention 2023
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JAPAN – A REGIONAL POWERHOUSE DATA CENTRE MARKET JULY 2023
Todd Olson Managing Director, Japan & Korea Executive Sponsor, Asia Pacific Data Centre Advisory Team todd.olson@ap.cushwake.com
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Cushman & Wakefield
60 countries
52,000 employees
Fueled by ideas, expertise, and dedication across borders and beyond service lines, we create real estate solutions to prepare our clients for What’s Next.
$10.1B * 2022 revenue *USD
5.1B sqft managed
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CORE: Services and Expertise We are working together to provide the insight and expertise our clients need to prepare for What's Next.
INDUSTRIES & SPECIALTIES
Airports Automobiles Banking & Finance Build-to-Suit Data Centers E-Commerce Education Emerging Technology Energy (Oil & Gas) Flexible Workplace Food & Beverage Global Supply Chain Government
Industry Land Legal/Professional Life Sciences/Pharmaceutical Multifamily Net Lease Investment Non-Profit Office Port/Intermodal Railroad Retail Sports & Entertainment Third Party Logistics (3PL)
Healthcare Hospitality
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GREATER CHINA
AUSTRALIA
ALEX MOFFATT Director, Logistics & Industrial, Australia
JOHN SIU Managing Director, Hong Kong
CONFIDENTLY GLOBAL, OUR PEOPLE
VIETNAM
INDIA
GAURAV PANDEY Associate Director, Leasing Agency, India
TRANG BUI General Manager, Vietnam
Our Asia Pacific Data Centre Advisory Team as part of our Global Data Centre Advisory Group, has created optimal solutions and location strategies to address highly complex IT requirements for enterprise clients across the region and globally since 2004. Our multi-disciplined team, consisting of experts across a spectrum of advisory services, focus specifically on the data centre market for seamless delivery. Every client requirement is unique; we have the experience to develop long-term strategies that drive wise investment decisions for enterprise users, colocation providers, hyperscalers, sector investors and developers.
JAPAN
TIMOTHY GREGERSEN Senior Manager, Investment Sales Data Centre Advisory
KOSUKE OGI Executive Director Data Centre Advisory
Team Japan
Team Japan
INDONESIA
KOREA
WIRA AGUS Director,
JOHN PRITCHARD Head of Tenant Advisory Group Data Centre Advisory
Industrial & Land Sales Data Centre Advisory Team Indonesia
ASIA PACIFIC DATA CENTRE ADVISORY TEAM & GLOBAL PARTNERS
Team Korea
ASIA PACIFIC
MALAYSIA
NEW ZEALAND
VIVEK DAHIYA Head of Asia Pacific Data Centre Advisory Team (APAC DCAT)
TODD HANRAHAN Head of Project & Development Services New Zealand
TODD OLSON Executive Sponsor,
PRITESH SWAMY Senior Director, Data Centres Research & Advisory, APAC & EMEA
TIFFANY GOH Country Manager, Malaysia
APAC DCAT & Managing Director, Japan & Korea
PHILIPPINES
SINGAPORE
SHIVANI JADON Assistant Vice President Data Centre & Cloud Advisory
REBECCA JUNG Associate Director, Business Development Services, Asia Pacific
BRENDA ONG Executive Director, Logistics & Industrial, Singapore
DEEPENDRA SHUKLA Director, Data Centre & Cloud Advisory
THERESE CASTRO Director, Head of Tenant Advisory Group, Philippines
EMEA
AMERICAS
THAILAND
ANDREW FRAY International Partner & Head of EMEA Data Centre Advisory Team
CHRIS CUFF Data Centre Account Management, Asia Pacific
GARETH POWELL Country Head, Thailand
JESSICA HOWE Vice President, Global Growth Verticals
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AGENDA
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THE BIG PICTURE – ASIA PACIFIC THE CURRENT STATE – JAPAN THE FUTURE – COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE IMPLICATIONS
THE BIG PICTURE: ASIA PACIFIC
2023 GLOBAL DATA CENTRE MARKET COMPARISON REPORT 2 0 2 3 G LOBA L DATA C E N T R E MAR K E T COMPAR I S ON R E POR T
HIGH-WEIGHT
1. Fiber Connectivity 2. Market Size 3. Cloud Availability
MID-WEIGHT
4. Incentives 5. Taxes 6. Political Stability 7. Vacancy 8. Development Pipeline
1,600+ DATA CENTRES EVALUATED
63 MARKETS COVERED
32 RESEARCH SOURCES
9. Sustainability 10. Smart Cities
2023 ASIA PACIFIC TOP 10 MARKETS 01 / SINGAPORE 02 / HONG KONG
03 / SYDNEY & SEOUL*
LOW-WEIGHT
07 / MUMBAI
05 / TOKYO
06 / BEIJING
11. Power Cost 12. Land Price 13. Environmental Risk
KUALA LUMPUR 10 / *Ranking tie
08 / SHANGHAI
09 / MELBOURNE
ASIA PACIFIC MARKETS MATURITY INDEX Q1 2023 UPDATE
Beijing 2,616MW
Mumbai
2,292MW
Tokyo
2,242MW
Shanghai
2,240MW
Sydney
2,079MW
Melbourne
Johor
Hong Kong
Chennai
Singapore
Hyderabad
Seoul
Osaka 348MW
Delhi NCR
Jakarta
Guangzhou
Northern Virginia 7,625W
Pune
Bengaluru
Manila
GROWTH SCORE
Canberra Kuala Lumpur Bangkok
Perth
Busan
Taipei
Auckland
Ho Chi Minh City
Brisbane
Developing
Secondary
Established
Powerhouse
EMERGING
PRIMARY
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research (Q1 2023)
Cushman & Wakefield
DATA CENTRE CAPACITY: RANKING BY CITY TOP 10 CITY MARKETS ACROSS ASIA PACIFIC
Key Markets Stock, Pipeline & Vacancy %
Operational
Pipeline Vacancy % (RHS)
30%
3,000
25%
2,500
20%
2,000
15%
1,500
10%
1,000
5%
500
0%
0
Jakarta
Seoul
Singapore
Chennai
Johor
Sydney
Shanghai
Tokyo
Mumbai
Beijing
Established
Powerhouse
*Excludes developments currently at land stage
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research (Q1 2023)
Cushman & Wakefield
DATA CENTRE CAPACITY: RANKING BY COUNTRY JAPAN NEEDS MORE DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Cloud DC Server Room Area per Capita
Cloud DC Server Room Area per GDP GDP (2021, current $) LHS Cloud DC Area per GDP
sq.m.
0.08
1200
$20,000
0.0713
$18,000
0.07
1000
$16,000
0.06
$14,000
800
0.05
$12,000
0.0424
600
$10,000
0.04
$8,000
0.03
400
$6,000
Nominal GDP $ (2021)
0.02
0.0165
$4,000
200
0.01
$2,000
0.0033
0.0028
0.0012
$0
0
0.00
Singapore Hong Kong Australia Japan South Korea China
Singapore Hong Kong Australia
Japan South Korea
China
Source: Development Bank of Japan, World Bank, C&W Research Year ended December 31, 2021
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Cushman & Wakefield
THE CURRENT STATE: JAPAN
JAPAN: MARKET OVERVIEW
RANKING TOP 10 DC OPERATORS
Q1 2023 KEY INDICATORS*
1,099MW In operation 1,385MW Planned 1
30 / 138 No. of operators / data centres
(MW)
0
50
100
150
200
329MW Under construction
*Definition: Key indicators are based on operational Hyperscale Cloud, Colo, Edge & Telco data centre facilities in the market and excludes Captive & ICT. All values IT MW.
CABLE CONNECTIVITY & HYPERSCALERS
Tokyo
Osaka
1 Planned is defined as land ban purchase and DC development and includes all announced deals with no year limit. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research (Q1 2023), Submarine Cable Map
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Cushman & Wakefield
POLICY INCENTIVES
DATA CENTER / DEVELOPMENT
SUBMARINE CABLE
• Develop DC in 10+ regional locations in 5 years
• Build a digital superhighway using submarine cables surrounding the islands of Japan in 3 years • Construct and disperse cable landing station to regional locations
Development plan
Existing funding (specific measures of realization)
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) Support for DC construction and projects related to distributing submarine cable landing station in regional locations (JPY50 billion). *Aid rate: 1/2, 4/5 (only for submarine cable) *Subject of support: DC (building, servers etc.), submarine cable, landing station, IX facility *Target area: outside Tokyo (submarine cables should be other than Pacific side) Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Support for DC land development (JPY526 billion)
• Development of maximum 5 to 7 large scale DC locations (expect to stimulate further DC developments led by private sector)
• Completion of submarine cable network encircling Japan • Development of several new landing stations
Measure effects (such as number of possible developments)
IN FUTURE: Promote dissemination of DC, submarine cable, IX in regional locations for: o Building a robust digital infrastructure through decentralization to make Japan a data hub that can safely and securely store and process personal and sensitive information. o Revitalizing rural areas through the development of digital infrastructure and improving the efficiency of data distribution within the region.
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Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication, C&W Research
Cushman & Wakefield
FORECAST
KEY DEMAND DRIVERS
Japan DC Market Size
JPY
Internet of Things (IoT)
7.0 T
Edge Computing Data Center Cloud Services
Forecast
5.9 T
5Y CAGR: 10.4%
6.0 T
5.2 T
5.0 T
4.6 T
Cloud Computing
4.1 T
4.0 T
3.6 T
3.2 T
2.8 T
3.0 T
2.5 T
2.2 T
2.0 T
Expanding 5G Network
1.0 T
0.0 T
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Financial Services
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Cushman & Wakefield
Source: Nomura Research Institute (2023) , Fuji Chimera Research (2023), Cushman & Wakefield Research
GREATER TOKYO
Q1 2023 KEY INDICATORS*
17% Vacancy rate
97 No. of DCs
874MW In operation
299MW UC
1,069MW Planned
6% Vacancy rate
CENTRAL TOKYO 366MW in operation across 58 data centres 1% vacancy rate 53MW UC / 28MW planned
INZAI
WEST TOKYO
INZAI 219MW in operation across 13 data centres 17% vacancy rate 83MW UC / 745MW planned
CENTRAL TOKYO
REST OF TOKYO 289MW in operation across 26 data centres 10% vacancy rate 163MW UC / 297MW planned
*Definition: Key indicators are based on operational Hyperscale Cloud, Colo, Edge & Telco data centre facilities in the market and excludes Captive & ICT. All values IT MW.
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research (Q1 export March 2023)
Cushman & Wakefield
GREATER TOKYO AREA Expect Hyperscale Demand Outpacing New Supply Reducing Vacancy to Below 15%
Hyperscale-Occupied Hyperscale - available Occupancy %
200,000
90.0%
87.4%
180,000
88.0%
160,000
86.0%
140,000
84.0%
83.1%
82.6%
120,000
82.0%
80.4%
100,000
79.8%
80.0%
# rack
80,000
78.0%
77.3%
78.0%
60,000
76.0%
40,000
74.0%
20,000
0
72.0%
2020
2021
2022E
2023F
2024F
2025F
2026F
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Source: Data Center Business Market Survey 2022, Fuji Chimera Research Institute
Cushman & Wakefield
OSAKA
Q1 2023 KEY INDICATORS*
17% Vacancy rate
33 No. of DCs
144MW In operation
12MW UC
193MW Planned
25% Vacancy rate
NORTH OSAKA 80MW in operation across 10 data centres* 33% vacancy rate 84MW UC / 0MW planned
NORTH OSAKA
CENTRAL OSAKA 64MW in operation across 23 data centres* 15% vacancy rate 12MW UC / 109MW planned
KEIHANNA SCIENCE CITY
KEIHANNA SCIENCE CITY (not included in Osaka’s key indicators) 21MW in operation across 2 data centres* 28% vacancy rate 18MW UC / 11MW planned
CENTRAL OSAKA
*Definition: Key indicators are based on operational Hyperscale Cloud, Colo, Edge & Telco data centre facilities in the market and excludes Captive & ICT. All values IT MW.
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Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research (Q1 export March 2023)
Cushman & Wakefield
OSAKA Expect Limited Supply to Reduce Vacancy to Below 10%
Hyperscale-Occupied Hyperscale - available Occupancy %
50,000
100.0%
95.6%
45,000
95.0%
40,000
90.1%
90.0%
35,000
30,000
83.5%
85.0%
83.0%
25,000
# rack
78.6%
80.0%
20,000
15,000
75.0%
70.8%
10,000
69.5%
70.0%
5,000
0
65.0%
2020
2021
2022E
2023F
2024F
2025F
2026F
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Source: Data Center Business Market Survey 2022, Fuji Chimera Research Institute
Cushman & Wakefield
PACIFIC REGION CABLE NETWORK STRONG GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY & LOWEST LATENCY WITH U.S. FROM JAPAN
• Strong global connectivity via 25 operational direct cables & 21 landing stations (7 new cables upcoming) • Lowest latency with East & West coast of U.S.A. via 11 direct cables (2 new cables upcoming)
Hong Kong Jakarta Mumbai Tokyo Los Angeles 148.234ms 183.351ms 262.483ms 153.834ms 231.021ms 162.627ms 99.37ms New York 269.684ms 231.021ms 237.683ms 275.556ms 245.217ms 209.9ms 176.751ms Shanghai Singapore Sydney
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*Source: WonderNetwork
Cushman & Wakefield
The Future: Commercial Real Estate Implications
WHY JAPAN? Factors for Market Entry
Opportunities
Network Connectivity Low Latency
Positive Spread for Investment
Rising Geopolitical Risk
Policy Incentives Rules of Law
Low Cost of Capital
Risk Factors
High Barriers to Entry
Limited Power Availability
Risk of Obsolescence
Climate Risk Earthquake
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Cushman & Wakefield
Note: Construction cost is estimated at JPY 1.7M per KVA, equivalent to xx% increase form 2021 (1 USD = 140 JPY) based on the corporate forecast median value for 2023-2024 according to BoJ Survey Results.
INCREASING ASSET AGE IN JAPAN OBSOLESCENCE = OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTMENT
Greater Osaka
Greater Tokyo
sq.m.
sq.m.
Forecast
Forecast
1.2 M
60.0%
1.2 M
60.0%
55.8%
55.1%
53.9% 52.6%
52.9%
51.7%
1.0 M
50.0%
1.0 M
50.0%
44.4% 46.1% 45.3%
43.2% 43.0%
0.8 M
40.0%
0.8 M
40.0%
32.4%
0.6 M
30.0%
0.6 M
30.0%
0.4 M
20.0%
0.4 M
20.0%
0.2 M
10.0%
0.2 M
10.0%
0.0 M
0.0%
0.0 M
0.0%
2020 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025
2020 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025
DC with deterioration
DC in good condition
Obsolescense Ratio
DC with deterioration
DC in good condition
Obsolescense Ratio
Est. Replacement Cost of deteriorated facilities: JPY 673 billion (US$4.8 billion)
Est. Replacement Cost of deteriorated facilities: JPY 107 billion (US$0.8 billion)
Note: Defined according to large capital investment required. For Data Center assets, Obsolescence ratio = data center over 20 years old / Total Stock (GFA)
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Cushman & Wakefield
Source: Fuji Chimera Research Institute; Development Bank of Japan, C&W Research
SUSTAINABILITY
Power usage efficiency (PUE) - measures the effectiveness of data centre energy usage by determining the amount of power used by computing equipment, rather than other systems
Water usage efficiency (WUE) - measures how much water a data centre facility uses for cooling and other operational needs. WUE is the ratio of total water used at the data centre and is calculated by dividing annual site water usage in litres by the energy usage in kilowatt hours (Kwh)
Carbon usage effectiveness (CUE) - measures the carbon emissions from a data centre. CUE is the ratio of total CO2 emissions caused by total data centre energy consumption to the energy consumption of IT equipment
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Cushman & Wakefield
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