CW - Q4 2022 UK LI Outlook Report - FINAL

ECONOMY & OUTLOOK Performance Indicators & Commentary

GDP forecast Annual Growth -0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% 2023 2024 2025

Industrial Production Index 101.9 | 101.4 | 101.5 2023 2024 2025

Annual Online Sales Growth 1.7% | -3.6% | -1.2% 2023 2024 2025

GVA T&S* forecast Annual Growth 1.6% | -6.5% | 3.5% 2023 2024 2025

GDP YoY Growth Average by Vintage

ECONOMY A recession is likely to be confirmed once Q4 data is released by ONS. This would be driven by the squeeze on real disposable income which has seen the largest fall since the 1950’s, is likely to be a shorter and shallower recession than those previously experienced. Disposable incomes are likely to be tightened further as 80% of mortgage holders are on fixed deals and are expected to renew/re-mortgage during 2023. Recovery is expected to commence during H2 2023, the timing and extent to which hinges on the Russia/Ukraine conflict, easing of supply chain pressures, and mild weather relieving pressure on energy/gas and fuel prices and thus inflation. Another key driver currently undergoing structural change is the relationship between physical and instore retail, which has shown significant variability since the re-opening of the economy post Covid-19. OUTLOOK The outlook for the economy of the United Kingdom remains somewhat challenging. Although low levels of unemployment will benefit the economy, providing critical household income a key challenge will be ensuring that this income re-enters the economy through spending, particularly as household savings are eroded as the year progresses. Close timing to the Covid-19 pandemic brings with it heightened risk of business failures and bankruptcy, with many exhausting borrowing options during this time and now facing higher debt servicing costs. Whilst inflation is anticipated to fall back to its naturally occurring rate during late 2023 and early 2024, many businesses will be exiting this period with significant increases to their cost base, whilst simultaneously facing an erosion of their operating margins. The result requiring a significant focus on supply chain safe guarding and risk mitigation, and a requirement for business to holistically review their current supply chain network.

10.00

Forecast

5.00

0.00

-5.00

-10.00

-15.00

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Supply Chain Pressure Index

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1

0

-1

-2

*Transportation & Storage Source: Moody’s Analytics October 2022, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2022

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2