C&W Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report -Q2 2018
Industrial Insider
M I D -Y E A R R E P O R T | Q 2 2 0 1 8
Kurt Griffin, SIOR Executive Managing Director +1 972 663 9818 kurt.griffin@cushwake.com
Nathan Orbin, SIOR Executive Managing Director +1 972 663 9819 nathan.orbin@cushwake.com
Ann Jaggars Analyst +1 972 663 9775 ann.jaggars@cushwake.com
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
2
Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
Table of Contents
4
Mid-Year Update
6
Dallas Market Overview
18
Allen/McKinney
22
Alliance/North Fort Worth
28
Brookhollow/Trinity
32
DFW Airport
38
East Fort Worth
42
Far North/I-35
46
Garland/Mesquite
52
Great Southwest
58
North Dallas/Metropolitan
62
Pinnacle/Turnpike
66
Redbird
70
Richardson/Plano
74
South Dallas
80
South Fort Worth
84
Valwood/N Stemmons
88
Walnut Hill/Stemmons
Q2 2018
3
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
75
380
380
35
35E
380
35W
ALLEN/MCKINNEY
287
FAR NORTH I-35
75
35E
121
114
RICHARDSON/PLANO
VALWOOD/ STEMMONS
114
35W
NORTH DALLAS/ METROPOLITAN
35E
121
75
287
ALLIANCE
635
GARLAND
DFW AIRPORT
114
635
WALNUT HILL/ STEMMONS
360
635
114
121
12
NORTH FORT WORTH
12
35E
30
199
183
183
CENTRAL DALLAS
BROOKHOLLOW/ TRINITY
820
75
820
EAST FORT WORTH
35W
80
PINNACLE/ TURNPIKE
121
WEST FORT WORTH
360
30
MESQUITE
CENTRAL FORT WORTH
30
12
35E
30
GREAT SOUTHWEST
20
45
30
12
820
175
287
20
12
20
REDBIRD
20
820
20
20
67
35E
175
20
SOUTH DALLAS
287
377
45
360
35W
SOUTH FORT WORTH
67
35E
LEASING VELOCITY AND ABSORPTION CURRENTLY OUTPACE DELIVERIES AND MID-YEAR ACTIVE TENANT REQUIREMENTS IS STRONG AT 25.9 MSF
4 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
Mid-Year Update
Welcome back to our Industrial Insider report. We hope everyone is enjoying their summer. Our team has experienced a lot of positive feedback over the last 12 months, and we are excited to present our new and improved Industrial Insider - Mid-Year Update. In this report, we present the latest DFW industrial market activity and paint a picture of our current cycle’s speed and stamina. Our market is experiencing a time unlike any other and we continue to witness strong growth and activity in every statistical metric. For the first half of 2018, we tracked 11.7 MSF of overall net absorption, putting the greater DFW industrial market on track to exceed 20 MSF for the fourth straight year.
Construction activity is topping record highs in the DFW market with mid- year completions at 10.8 MSF and 22.6 MSF of new supply currently under construction, 74% of which is speculative product. This influx of speculative product in the construction pipeline may raise concerns from a vacancy perspective, but leasing velocity and absorption currently outpace deliveries and mid-year active tenant requirements look strong at 25.9 MSF. We hope you find this special Mid-Year Update edition of our Industrial Insider informative. We trust the content of the data validates our excitement for the direction our market is heading. Wishing everyone success throughout the remainder of 2018.
30
ROCKWALL
Kurt Griffin, SIOR Executive Managing Director +1 972 663 9818 kurt.griffin@cushwake.com
Nathan Orbin, SIOR Executive Managing Director +1 972 663 9819 nathan.orbin@cushwake.com
Ann Jaggars Analyst +1 972 663 9775 ann.jaggars@cushwake.com
Q2 2018
5
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
6 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
DFW Overview
Q2 2018
7
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
DFW Overview
Dallas-Fort Worth’s industrial market continues to see enthusiastic interest from tenants, developers, and in- vestors. The thriving DFW economy remains an essential contributor to the industrial market as population and employment growth persist. At mid-year, strong industrial demand throughout the DFW market prevails, as seen by the 11.7 MSF of net absorp- tion and 12.1 MSF of leasing activity year-to-date. Despite the 10.8 MSF of new supply year-to-date, the DFW industrial mar- ket has sustained a tightened overall vacancy of 6.4% over the first two quarters of 2018.
Great Southwest continues to be the hottest submarket in DFW. It account- ed for 6.8 MSF of overall net absorp- tion for the first half of 2018. GSW’s level of market activity was followed by South Dallas, with 2.7 MSF of net absorption. Alliance and DFW Airport were not far behind, each posting 1.2 MSF of net absorption. Looking ahead, we don’t see any near-term slowdown in the Dallas-Fort Worth industrial market. We are very optimistic as DFW is well positioned to continue to see elevated demand and activity through the rest of the year.
DFW INDUSTRIAL SUBMARKET LEADERS AT MID- YEAR ARE GREAT SOUTHWEST, SOUTH DALLAS, ALLIANCE AND DFW AIRPORT WITH NET ABSORPTIONS OF 6.8 MSF, 2.7 MSF, 1.2 MSF AND 1.2 MSF, RESPECTIVELY
MARKET SUMMARY
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
614.9 616.9 619.0 626.4 643.5 663.1 684.3 713.5 725.5
Inventory (MSF) Overall Net Absorption (MSF) Overall Vacancy
2.9 12.5 12.1
17.4 15.6 20.2 23.7 25.9 11.7
12.1% 10.4% 8.7% 7.0% 7.1% 6.8% 6.0% 6.5% 6.4%
Completions (MSF)
1.5
2.0 2.1
7.4
17.1
19.6 21.2 29.2 10.8
Under Construction (MSF)
1.4
2.0 4.0 13.9 16.6 20.3 26.6 19.3 22.6
8 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
VACANCY
HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 8.2%
NET ABSORPTIONS / COMPLETIONS
NEW SUPPLY
HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 12.5 MSF
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0 Millions
10.0
5.0
0.0
2010 2011
2012
2013
2014 2015
2016 2017 YTD 2018
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
Q2 2018
9
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
10 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
DFW Overview
Overall Vacancy Rate
2018 YTDNet Absorption
Under Construction
2018 YTD Completions
Building Size (SF)
Inventory
Allen/McKinney
7,661,057
2.7%
140,000
0
140,000
Brookhollow/Trinity
48,802,343
2.1%
20,578
0
0
Central Dallas
14,424,995
2.5%
0
0
0
DFW Airport
79,757,076
6.4%
1,200,570
5,401,564
444,429
Far North/I-35
18,406,188
4.5%
84,530
335,094
336,494
Garland
43,930,950
6.2%
354,236
1,038,497
0
Great Southwest
110,749,911
6.9%
6,818,521
1,654,986
3,826,733
Mesquite
17,997,954
10.9%
-440,860
2,340,730
0
North Dallas/Metropolitan
19,367,912
6.0%
-272,846
0
0
Pinnacle/Turnpike
27,774,375
7.8%
-712,173
0
189,200
Redbird
22,284,459
4.1%
-171,300
0
154,960
Richardson/Plano
36,171,641
6.4%
82,898
284,908
0
Rockwall
2,729,554
0.1%
0
0
0
South Dallas
48,804,025
19.5%
2,729,030
4,667,783
3,711,610
Valwood/N Stemmons
50,362,030
4.1%
200,995
235,900
0
Walnut Hill/Stemmons
22,165,365
2.4%
-29,634
0
0
DALLAS TOTAL
571,389,835
6.7%
10,004,545
15,959,462
8,803,426
Alliance
39,936,038
6.6%
1,222,808
4,654,370
1,362,203
Central Fort Worth
16,008,482
1.8%
-79,277
0
0
East Fort Worth
23,482,411
6.0%
67,826
0
0
North Fort Worth
42,826,217
3.1%
162,296
1,465,155
221,000
South Fort Worth
27,204,944
7.9%
240,000
478,939
308,061
West Fort Worth
4,344,345
9.7%
90,000
0
90,000
FORT WORTH TOTAL
153,802,437
5.4%
1,703,653
6,598,464
1,981,264
DFW TOTAL
725,192,272
6.4%
11,708,198
22,557,926
10,784,690
Q2 2018
11
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
Supply
Completed Construction
Completed Construction
398,719
816,504
41,324 82,289
747,500
84,948
378,959
FIRST GENERATION VACANCIES
6,453,091
2,866,835
50,387
1,136,620
189,200
Allen/McKinney Far North/I-35 Mesquite Pinnacle/Turnpike Redbird
Alliance Garland N Stemmons/Valwood South Dallas East Ft. Worth
DFW Airport GSW North Ft Worth South Ft Worth Frisco
12 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
SUM OF AVAILABLE SPACE - Completed Construction
Building Size (SF)
100,000-249,999 250,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+
Grand Total
Alliance
234,277
312,733
269,494
816,504
DFW Airport
452,705
294,795
747,500
East Ft Worth
41,324
41,324
Far North/I-35
82,289
82,289
Garland
378,959
378,959
GSW
682,015
2,184,820
2,866,835
N Stemmons/Valwood
50,387
50,387
North Ft Worth
407,229
564,670
164,721
1,136,620
Pinnacle/Turnpike
189,200
189,200
South Dallas
537,034
1,672,648
1,280,350
2,963,059
6,453,091
South Ft Worth
43,598
355,121
398,719
Frisco
84,948
84,948
GRAND TOTAL
2,713,295
5,855,457
1,714,565
2,963,059
13,246,376
COUNT OF AVAILABLE SPACE - Completed Construction
(VACANCY WITHIN RANGE)
Building Size (SF)
100,000-249,999 250,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+
Grand Total
Alliance
1
1
1
3
DFW Airport
4
1
5
East Ft Worth
1
1
Far North/I-35
1
1
Garland
1
1
GSW
6
11
17
N Stemmons/Valwood
1
1
North Ft Worth
2
2
1
5
Pinnacle/Turnpike
1
1
South Dallas
4
4
2
4
14
South Ft Worth
1
2
3
Frisco
1
1
GRAND TOTAL
21
24
4
4
53
Q2 2018
13
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
Supply
Under Construction
317,446
323,845
2,503,937
2,605,226
UNDER CONSTRUCTION VACANCIES
1,452,485
234,904
3,930,751
976,300
2,157,693
1,013,497
Allen/McKinney Far North/I-35 Mesquite Pinnacle/Turnpike Redbird
Alliance Garland N Stemmons/Valwood South Dallas East Ft. Worth
DFW Airport GSW North Ft Worth South Ft Worth Frisco
14 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
SUM OF AVAILABLE SPACE - Under Construction
Building Size (SF)
100,000-249,999 250,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+
Grand Total
Allen/McKinney
317,446
317,446
Alliance
809,628
705,956
1,089,642
2,605,226
DFW Airport
827,631
1,354,336
747,984
1,000,800
3,930,751
Garland
685,897
327,600
1,013,497
GSW
465,117
1,168,116
524,460
2,157,693
Mesquite
393,100
583,200
976,300
N Stemmons/Valwood
234,904
234,904
North Ft Worth
432,485
270,000
750,000
1,452,485
South Dallas
237,678
1,221,612
1,044,647
2,503,937
South Ft Worth
323,845
323,845
Grand Total
3,918,103
3,929,680
4,533,212
3,135,089
15,516,084
Frisco
84,948
84,948
GRAND TOTAL
3,694,518
4,751,298
2,682,972
4,933,159
16,061,947
COUNT OF AVAILABLE SPACE - Under Construction
(VACANCY WITHIN RANGE)
Building Size (SF)
100,000-249,999 250,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+
Grand Total
Allen/McKinney
2
2
Alliance
2
1
1
4
DFW Airport
5
5
2
1
13
Garland
4
1
5
GSW
3
3
1
7
Mesquite
2
1
3
N Stemmons/Valwood
1
1
North Ft Worth
2
1
1
4
South Dallas
1
2
1
4
South Ft Worth
2
2
Grand Total
22
12
8
3
45
Frisco
1
1
GRAND TOTAL
21
14
4
5
44
Q2 2018
15
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
Demand
ACTIVE REQUIREMENTS TOTALING*
AVERAGE REQUIREMENT
25,970,000 SF 519,400 SF
*NOTE: 150,000 SF +
ESTIMATED OCCUPANCY TIMELINE
1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000
0 500,000
3Q 2018 4Q 2018
2019
1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2019
HISTORICAL REQUIREMENTS (SF)
12 14 15 17 18 20 21 23 24 26
0 2 3 5 6 8 9 11
Millions
16 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
REQUIREMENTS BY SIZE
Size (SF)
Requirements
1,000,000 +
7
500,000 - 999,999
15
250,000 - 499,999
14
100,000 - 249,999
14
REQUIREMENTS BY BROKERAGE FIRM (SF)
# Tenants
Cushman & Wakefield CBRE Colliers ESRP Fischer Holt Lunsford Jackson Cooksey JLL Lee & Associates NAI Paladin Partners
2% 2%
6%
2%
ushman & Wakefield BRE olliers SRP ischer olt Lunsford ackson Cooksey LL ee & Associates AI aladin Partners
20%
4%
12%
18%
6%
2%
avills Studley tream Realty
2%
8%
16%
Savills Studley Stream Realty
REQUIREMENTS BY SUBMARKET (SF)
Pinnacle Mesiqute Redbird
200,000
500,000
800,000
Market Wide DFW Airport GSW South Dallas Alliance Ft. Worth
1,075,000
1,500,000
2,965,000
4,025,000
4,590,000
13,595,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q2 2018
17
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
18 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
Allen/McKinney
Q2 2018
19
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
Allen/McKinney
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS
75
• Located on the northernmost edge of the DFW market with heavy residential surrounding population • Most new supply to this submarket comes from built-to- suit, shallow bay, and high-finish deals (flex space) • Low vacancy and positive overall absorption has motivated planning and ground breaking of several speculative new developments –– Hunt Southwest delivering speculative 202K SF front- park, rear-load in Q3 2018 at I-75 and Wilmeth Road –– Dalfen delivering McKinney Fulfillment Center, a speculative 115K SF front-park, rear-load at the SEC of Redbud Blvd and Corporate Drive in McKinney in Q4 2018 SELECT NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
380
ALLEN/MCKINNEY
ALLEN
75
MURPHY
RICHARDSON
75
30
MARKET SUMMARY
635
ND
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
30
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.3
7.5
7.7
Inventory (MSF)
LAS
80
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
(224,973) 98,155
32,900 194,810 499,072 338,526 470,371 106,799 140,000
13.8% 16.3% 15.8% 13.8% 8.0% 3.1% 2.3% 3.4% 2.7%
Overall Vacancy
FORNEY
45
12
108,000 305,000 20
0
66,000 117,261
0
423,927 198,000 140,000
175
Completions (MSF)
BALCH SPRINGS
20
Under Construction (MSF) HUTCHINS
0
66,000 66,000 117,261
0
291,620 108,000 140,000 317,446
175
45
ANCASTER
WILMER
20 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
VACANCY
Historical Average = 7.4% ISTORICAL AVERAGE = 7.4%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Q2 2012
Q2 2013
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NET ABSORPTIONS / COMPLETIONS
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
0.6
0.5
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.4
Millions
0.2
0.3
Millions
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2012 2013 2014 2015 16 2017 2018 YTD OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q2 2018
21
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
22 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
Alliance/ North Fort Worth
Q2 2018
23
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
Alliance/North Fort Worth
The North Fort Worth and Alliance submarkets are situated along I-35W on the northwest edge of DFW. Both submarkets benefit from proximity to Alliance’s Global Logistics Hub, which includes the BNSF Railway Intermodal Terminal, Alliance Airport, and UPS and FedEx hubs. While Alliance has traditionally been a finite submarket mostly controlled by Hillwood, other developers are entering the area. However, limited land availability will constrict opportunities for competing projects. North Fort Worth is an infill submarket with few remaining large land parcels available for development. The DENTON 35E 35
submarket’s tenant base has a high percentage of rail users and light manufacturing. Both Alliance and North Fort Worth have been active in construction activity over the last several years and continue to experience impressive leasing velocity. Since 2015, the combined submarkets have delivered 14.2 MSF and have posted an overall net absorption of 15.1 MSF. Of the speculative assets delivered in both submarkets since 2015, 82% has leased. Both North Fort Worth and Alliance will remain important players for DFW as dynamic industrial submarkets. 75
ALLIANCE AND NORTH FORT WORTH COMBINED HAVE 4.6 MSF OF SPECULATIVE PRODUCT SET TO DELIVER BY YEAR-END
380
380
LITTLE ELM
CORINTH
35W
FRISCO
87
ALLEN
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS HIGHLAND VILLAGE
75
PLANO
• New supply delivered in 2018 is expected to hit 6.4 MSF, more than doubling submarket deliveries for 2017 • Hillwood has plans to break ground on two new speculative buildings in Alliance next month (780K SF and 500K SF) and are in the design phase of their next 1 MSF speculative building that will be expandable to 1.5 MSF • New 203 acre development by DHL Real Estate Solutions, Elizabeth Creek Gateway, is expected to bring nearly 4 MSF of new product and represents one of few remaining non-Hillwood controlled developments RICHARDSON FARMERS BRANCH HIGHLAND PARK ADDISON CARROLLTON 30 635 635 635 35E 35E 35E 12 114 114 121 183 121 12 75
FLOWER MOUND
114
MURPHY
ROANOKE
114
SOUTHLAKE
35W
GRAPEVINE
287
ALLIANCE
KELLER
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS
360
COLLEYVILLE
121
NORTH FORT WORTH
BEDFORD
SAGINAW
EULESS
183
HALTOM CITY
IRVING
820
75
820
35W
DALLAS
80
121
360
30
30
WHITE SETTLEMENT
GRAND PRAIRIE
ARLINGTON
12
FORT WORTH
35E
30
45
12
820
175
24 Q2 2018
287
BALCH SPRINGS
12
20
820
20
20
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
MARKET SUMMARY - Alliance
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
27.6
27.6
27.6
28.8 31.5 34.5
36.4 38.1
39.9
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
169,458 746,052
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
2.5
4.0
1.2
16.4% 13.8% 8.9% 7.5% 11.2% 15.1% 12.4% 6.0% 6.6%
Overall Vacancy
243,496 25,000
0
1.1
2.7
3.0
1.8
1.7
1.4
Completions (MSF)
73,726
48,726
48,726
3.8
2.8
1.2
1.7
2.7
4.7
Under Construction (MSF)
MARKET SUMMARY - North Fort Worth
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
35.8
35.9
36.0
36.0
36.6
37.1
40.6
42.6 42.8
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
367,833 541,333 328,639 373,041 309,287 (837,861) 4.5
2.3
162,296
6.6% 5.3% 4.9% 3.8% 4.4% 8.1% 4.7% 4.0% 3.1%
Overall Vacancy
0
58,603 188,000
0
541,216 559,367
3.4
2.1
221,000
Completions (MSF)
0
188,000
0
0
0
3.3
1.4
1.1
1.5
Under Construction (MSF)
NET ABSORPTIONS/ COMPL TIONS
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS ALLIANCE/NORTH FORT WORTH COMBINED
Historical Combined Average = 6.9% HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 6.9%
8.0
14.0%
7.0
12.0%
6.0
10.0%
5.0
8.0%
4.0
6.0%
Millions
3.0
4.0%
2.0
2.0%
1.0
0.0%
Q2 2012
Q2 2013
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
0.0
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
Q2 2018
25
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
Alliance/North Fort Worth
SELECT LEASING ACTIVITY Tenant Building
Location
SF Leased
Stanley Black & Decker
Alliance Northport - Bldg 3
I-35W & Sam Lee Ln, Northlake
1,214,000
3M
300 Gateway
300 Gateway Pky, Roanoke
603,050
XPO Logistics
Alliance Center North 15
3300 Eagle Pky, Fort Worth
318,768
CEVA Logistics
Synergy Crossing - Bldg 200
1101 I-35W, Fort Worth
300,000
Carolina Beverage
Alliance Gateway 57
1051 Republic Dr, Roanoke
201,204
ATAC
Alliance Westport 3
920 Westport Pky, Haslet
183,908
Mattel
Prologis Meacham Crossing
4601 Gold Spike Dr, Fort Worth
183,832
Lanter Delivery Systems Alliance Gateway 49
899 Henrietta Creek Rd, Roanoke
170,000
Alliance Sports Group Alliance Gateway 2
5650 Alliance Gateway Fwy, Fort Worth
142,000
SkyCam
Parc North - Bldg 3
2751 Northern Cross Blvd, Fort Worth
74,623
Wise Foods
Railhead Business Station
800 Railhead Rd, Fort Worth
33,673
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
Completed - Last 12Months
Building
Developer/Owner
RBA SF Available % Leased
TDC Park 35/820
Transpacific Development Company
712,842
0
100%
35/820 @ Mercantile Center
Hunt Southwest
657,043
164,721
75%
TTI Distribution Facility
TTI, Inc
600,000
0
100%
Synergy Crossing - Bldg 200
Ironwood Realty/TCRG Properties
503,500
202,000
60%
Ridge Railhead - Bldg 2
Ridge Development/LaSalle Inv Mgmt
362,670
362,670
0%
TCC 35 Eagle - Bldg H
Trammell Crow
312,733
312,733
0%
TCC 35 Eagle - Bldg J
Trammell Crow
234,277
234,277
0%
Park 820 - Bldg 1
Scannell
220,229
220,229
0%
TOTALS
58.5%
26 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
Under Construction
Building
Developer/Owner
RBA
SF Available
Est. Delivery
TCC 35 Eagle - Bldg A
Trammell Crow
1,089,642
1,089,642
Jul-18
Fossil Creek Crossing - Bldg 1
Huntington / JDA
219,396
219,396
Jul-18
Fossil Creek Crossing - Bldg 2
Huntington / JDA
213,089
213,089
Jul-18
Andrews Distributing at Railhead
Ridge Development
400,000
0
Aug-18
Park 820 - Bldg 2
Scannell
270,000
270,000
Aug-18
Speedway Distribution Ctr - Bldg C
IDI Logistics
316,128
316,128
Oct-18
Synergy Crossing - Bldg 500
Ironwood / TCRG Properties
750,000
750,000
Dec-18
Elizabeth Creek Gateway - Bldg A
DHL
705,956
705,956
Dec-18
Elizabeth Creek Gateway - Bldg B
DHL
493,500
493,500
Dec-18
Alliance Northport 3
Hillwood
1,029,846
0
Jun-19
Alliance Center North 3
Hillwood
780,000
780,000 Break Ground 3Q 2018
Alliance Northport 1
Hillwood
500,000
500,000 Break Ground 3Q 2018
FORECAST The construction pipeline for both Alliance and North Fort Worth will remain active throughout the remainder of 2018 and well into 2019. An increase in vacancy for both submarkets is likely - a result of the 4.6 MSF of speculative product set to deliver by year-end. Competitive developers will continue their effort to overcome Alliance’s barriers to entry with acquisition and development of non-developer controlled sites in the area.
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q2 2018
27
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
28 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
Brookhollow/ Trinity
Q2 2018
29
FRISCO
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
ALLEN
LAND AGE
75
PLANO
Brookhollow/Trinity 121
35E
MURPHY
ADDISON
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS
RICHARDSON
CARROLLTON
35E
121
75
• The majority of Brookhollow/Trinity’s building stock was built several cycles ago and struggles to meet modern day supply chain and distribution demands • Demand in this submarket is driven by companies with smaller operations and/or local, last mile fulfillment and distribution • This infill submarket is primarily built-out and new supply isn’t likely until vacancy increases and developers can make sense of redeveloping old product 30 30 80
635
FARMERS BRANCH
114
635
635
114
12
12
HIGHLAND PARK
35E
183
BROOKHOLLOW/ TRINITY
IRVING
75
DALLAS
30
GRAND PRAIRIE
12
35E
FORNEY
45
12
175
20
BALCH SPRINGS
12
20
20
HUTCHINS
67
35E
175
DUNCANVILLE
MARKET SUMMARY
45
DESOTO
2010 2011 LANCASTER
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD WILMER
67
35E
47.9
47,.9
47.9
47.9
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.8
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
(1.1)
398,419 137,953 245,991
1.2
572,730 532,986 64,042 20,578
8.1% 7.3% 7.0% 6.6% 4.7% 3.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
Overall Vacancy
0
21,400
0
34,400 353,161
0
0
0
0
Completions (MSF)
Under Construction (MSF)
21,400
0
139,561 185,161
0
0
0
0
0
30 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
VACANCY
Historical Average =4.4% HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 4.4%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Q2 2012
Q2 2013
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NET ABSORPTIONS/COMPLETIONS
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
1.4
1.2
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.6
0.4
Millions
0.3
0.4
Millions
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q2 2018
31
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
32 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
DFW Airport
Q2 2018
33
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
DFW Airport
The DFW Airport industrial submarket has a central location with excellent access to multiple major transportation arteries in the greater DFW metroplex and enjoys the highest tenant demand for warehouse/ distribution space. The submarket’s inventory stock is composed of both fee simple ownership and DFW Airport ground leased developments. Since 2015, demand has kept up with new supply and the DFW Airport submarket has played a leading role in absorption for the overall DFW market. 380
Developable infill sites in the DFW Airport submarket are nearly non-existent. This, along with the submarket’s strong leasing velocity on the northern side of the airport, motivated DFW Airport to open up the southern end for ground leased development opportunities. The first wave of new inventory from this opportunity has about 3.1 MSF delivering by year-end. As vacancy remains below the historical average, rates continue to drive upward to meet the elevated demand. 75
OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, DFW AIRPORT HAS
ABSORBED 5.4 MSF, NEARLY DOUBLE THE AMOUNT OF NEW DELIVERIES.
DENTON
35
35E
LITTLE ELM
380
CORINTH
35W
FRISCO
ALLEN
HIGHLAND VILLAGE
75
PLANO OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS
35E
121
FLOWER MOUND
MURPHY • Strong leasing velocity of new supply in the submarket, as 81% of deliveries over the last 12 months has leased • DFW Airport closed the first half of 2018 with a record high level of construction activity, at 5.4 MSF of new supply under construction • Of DFW Airport’s 5.4 MSF under construction, 3.9 MSF is set to deliver by year-end, 87% of which is speculative product • The submarket’s mid-year leasing activity was 1.9 MSF, the majority of which will be absorbed in 3Q and 4Q of this year RICHARDSON HIGHLAND PARK 30 30 635 12 75 75
E
114
ADDISON
SOUTHLAKE
CARROLLTON
35E
121
GRAPEVINE
635
FARMERS BRANCH
DFW AIRPORT
114
635
TH LAND LS
360
COLLEYVILLE
114
121
12
BEDFORD
EULESS
35E
183
183
IRVING
820
DALLAS
80
360
30
30
GRAND PRAIRIE
ARLINGTON
12
35E
FORNEY
45
12
175
34 Q2 2018
20
BALCH SPRINGS
12
20
20
20
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
MARKET SUMMARY
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
62.8
62.9
63.0
65.7 70.4
74.0
76.1
79.3
79.8
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
920,319
3.6
2.4
4.5
2.4
3.2
4.6
3.2
1.2
19.2% 13.5% 9.9% 6.8% 9.5% 9.7% 6.1% 5.8% 6.4%
Overall Vacancy
776,483 28,417
85,500
2.7
4.6
3.7
2.1
3.2
444,429
Completions (MSF)
Under Construction (MSF)
0
85,500
1.1
4.5
3.6
2.3
3.7
1.6
5.4
COMPLETIONS / NET ABSORPTIONS
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
Historical Average = 8.2% HISTORIC L AVERAGE = 8.2%
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
Millions
4.0%
1.0 1.5
2.0%
0.0 0.5
0.0%
Q2 2010 Q2 2011
Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
Q2 2018
35
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
DFW Airport
SELECT LEASING ACTIVITY Tenant Building
Location
SF Leased
PPG
Lakeside Ranch 530
1001 Lakeside Pky, Flower Mound
449,220
VIRA Insight
Majestic Airport Center DFW - Bldg 6
2701 S Valley Pky, Lewisville
329,060
American Hotel Register International Logistics Center - Bldg C
3801 S 20th Ave, DFW Airport
227,924
Confidential
Prologis Park 121 - Bldg 3
220 N Freeport Pky, Coppell
211,000
DHL
DFW Global Logistics Centre - Bldg 1
1225 Mustang Dr, DFW Airport
117,000
Sunbelt Marketing
Majestic Airport Center DFW - Bldg 5
2900 S Valley Pky, Lewisville
109,588
Sourcecrop/Source HOV Parc Royal - Bldg 5
3750 W Royal Ln, Irving
99,451
Crestron
International Logistics Center - Bldg B
3711 S 20th Ave, DFW Airport
81,627
American Airlines
DFW Global Logistics Centre - Bldg 2
1275 Metro Cir, DFW Airport
81,000
AIT Worldwide Logistics DCT DFW Trade Center
4301 Patriot Dr, Grapevine
53,778
Confidential
Logistics Center V
750 Royal Ln, DFW Airport
52,500
Network Logistics
Logistics Center V
750 Royal Ln, DFW Airport
42,600
Hankyu Hanshin
DFW Global Logistics Centre - Bldg 1
1225 Mustang Dr, DFW Airport
24,446
Stevens Global
DFW Global Logistics Centre - Bldg 3
1215 Metroplace Dr, Grapevine
20,112
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
Completed - Last 12Months
Building
Developer/Owner
RBA SF Available % Leased
Logistics Center II
Gramercy
1,008,176
0
100%
Prologis Park 121 - Bldg 3
Prologis
424,080
0
100%
Valley View DFW Airport
KKR
294,795
294,795
0%
DFW Global Logistics Ctr - Bldg 1
Ascendant Commercial/Clarion Partners
158,466
0
100%
DCT Freeport West - Bldg 2
DCT
111,012
111,012
0%
DFW Global Logistics Ctr - Bldg 2
Ascendant Commercial/Clarion Partners
108,300
0
100%
TOTALS
80.7%
36 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
Under Construction
Building
Developer/Owner
RBA SF Available
Est. Delivery
Int’l Logistics Center - Bldg B
Stream/Cabot Properties
203,476
121,849
Jul-18
Int'l Logistics Center - Bldg A
Stream/Cabot Properties
118,634
118,634
Jul-18
Int’l Logistics Center - Bldg C
Stream Cabot Properties
324,686
96,762
Aug-18
Prologis Park 121 - Bldg 5B
Prologis
125,520
125,520
Sep-18
Gateway Logistics Center - Bldg 1
Bandera Ventures/Long Warf
309,240
309,240
Oct-18
Gateway Logistics Center - Bldg 2
Bandera Ventures/Long Warf
211,316
211,316
Nov-18
Copeland Commercial/ Goldman Sachs
DFW Commerce Center - Bldg 1
1,000,584 1,000,584
Dec-18
Airport South Logistics Center
Robinson Weeks Partners
562,640
562,640
Dec-18
Gateway Logistics Center - Bldg 3 Bandera Ventures/Long Warf
374,900
374,900
Dec-18
Gateway Logistics Center - Bldg 4 Bandera Ventures/Long Warf
250,312
250,312
Jan-19
Gateway Logistics Center - Bldg 5 Bandera Ventures/Long Warf
267,254
267,254
Feb-19
Majestic Airport Center - Bldg 7
Majestic Realty
306,280
306,280
Mar-19
Lakeside Ranch 530
Duke
634,564
185,344
Apr-19
TCC Passport Park - Bldg 1
Trammell Crow Company
1,021,440 1,021,440 Break Ground 3Q 2018
TCC Passport Park - Bldg 2
Trammell Crow Company
711,360
711,360 Break Ground 3Q 2018
FORECAST Expect to see an uptick in vacancy as 6.5 MSF of new supply is set to deliver throughout the second half of 2018 and throughout 2019. About 82% of this new product delivering is located on DFW Airport ground leased land just north of GSW. Looking ahead, tenants will continue to be attracted to the submarket, and we anticipate elevated absorption numbers to remain consistent.
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q2 2018
37
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
38 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
East Fort Worth
Q2 2018
39
ALLEN
HIGHLAND VILLAGE
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
75
PLANO
35E
121
FLOWER MOUND
4
East Fort Worth ROANOKE SOUTHLAKE 114
MURPHY
ADDISON
RICHARDSON
CARROLLTON
35W
35E
121
75
GRAPEVINE
287
635
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS FARMERS BRANCH
114
KELLER
635
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS
360
COLLEYVILLE
635
• Comprised primarily of smaller, multi-tenant product 114
121
12
12
BEDFORD
GINAW
• Limited new development opportunities due to lack of available land and shallow demand • First Industrial sold Midway Business Park, a 93% leased 470K SF shallow bay industrial portfolio located at SH 121 and I-820, to Cohen Asset Management • Hunt Southwest’s speculative 300K SF Riverbend West Distribution Center traded to Pure Industrial at 86% leased HIGHLAND PARK DALLAS 45 30 35E 35E 30 12 12 12 183 75 80 175
EULESS
183
HALTOM CITY
IRVING
820
820
EAST FORT WORTH
35W
121
360
30
GRAND PRAIRIE
ARLINGTON
FORT WORTH
287
20
BALCH SPRINGS
20
820
20
20
HUTCHINS
67
35E
175
20
DUNCANVILLE
FOREST HILL
287
45
360
35W
DESOTO
LANCASTER
WILMER
MANSFIELD
67
35E
MARKET SUMMARY
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
22.9
22.9
22.9
22.9
23.0
23.0
23.4 23.5
23.5
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
16,690 (54,492) 35,902
97,359 121,025 (127,368) 216,947 23,604
67,826
5.4% 5.7% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.0%
Overall Vacancy
0
21,208 25,000
0
50,000 79,800 301,500 100,000
0
Completions (MSF)
Under Construction (MSF)
0
0
0
50,000
0
0
0
0
0
40 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
VACANCY
Historical Average = 5.4% ISTORICAL AVERAGE = 5.4%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Q2 2012
Q2 2013
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NET ABSORPTIONS/COMPLETIONS
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
0.6
0.5
0.1 0.1
0.4
Millions
0.3
(0.2) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0
Millions
0.2
0.1
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2012 2013 2014 2015 16 2017 2018 YTD OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q2 2018
41
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
42 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
Far North/I-35
Q2 2018
43
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
Far North/I-35
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS 75
DENTON
380
35
• Submarket surrounded by heavy residential population
35E
LITTLE ELM
380
CORINTH
35W
• Proximity to DFW Airport, rooftops and I-35 drives demand
FRISCO
ALLEN
FAR NORTH I-35
HIGHLAND VILLAGE
75
• Limited available land for development
PLANO
SELECT MARKET ACTIVITY
35E
121
FLOWER MOUND
MURPHY
–– Toyota Motor Sales leased the full 121,188 SF of ML Realty’s 121 Riverview Crossing, a speculative front-park, rear-load building at SH 121 and Midway Rd in Lewisville –– KMM leased 48,111 SF of Lincoln Property Company’s 130,400 SF speculative front-park, rear load building at I-35E and Lakeway Drive in Lewisville 30 635
ROANOKE
114
ADDISON
SOUTHLAKE
RICHARDSON
CARROLLTON
35W
35E
121
75
GRAPEVINE
635
FARMERS BRANCH
114
KELLER
635
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS
360
COLLEYVILLE
114
121
12
12
BEDFORD
HIGHLAND PARK
EULESS
35E
30
183
SELECT NEW DEVELOPMENT
183
HALTOM CITY
IRVING
75
820
–– First Industrial is kicking off Phase I of First Park 121, which includes two speculative front-park, rear-load buildings (Building A – 220,480 SF and Building B – 124,800 SF), located at Midway Rd and FM 544 in Lewisville FORNEY 20 12 80 175
W
DALLAS
121
360
30
30
GRAND PRAIRIE
ARLINGTON
12
RTH
35E
45
287
BALCH SPRINGS
12
20
820
20
20
HUTCHINS
67
35E
175
DUNCANVILLE
REST HILL
MARKET SUMMARY 287
45
360
W
DESOTO
LANCASTER
WILMER
MANSFIELD
67
35E
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
15.4
15.4 15.6 15.7
16.0 16.1
16.8
18.1
18.4
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
746,641 277,233 457,710 122,750 532,043 146,188 490,918
1.8
84,530
10.7% 9.0% 7.2% 7.0% 5.0% 4.7% 5.9% 2.8% 4.5%
Overall Vacancy
0
23,750 182,125 102,719 231,615 105,004 724,868
1.3
336,494
Completions (MSF)
Under Construction (MSF)
23,750 139,375 74,219 133,787 105,004 377,670
1.3
565,775 335,094
44 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
VACANCY
Historical Average =5.3% ISTORICAL AVERAGE = 5.3%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Q2 2012
Q2 2013
Q2 2014
Q2 2015
Q2 2016
Q2 2017
Q2 2018
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NET ABSORPTIONS/COMPLETIONS
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
0.6
0.5
0.4
Millions
0.3
Millions
0.2
0.1
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2012 2013 2014 2015 2 16 2017 2018 YTD OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q2 2018
45
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
46 Q2 2018
Industrial Insider Mid-Year Report
Garland/Mesquite
Q2 2018
47
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas
Garland/Mesquite
Located on the eastern edge of the DFW metroplex, the Garland and Mesquite submarkets are attractive for their proximity to abundant labor and Interstate Freeways. Mesquite’s tenant base largely consists of 3PLs and manufacturing parts suppliers, while Garland’s has a higher percentage of owner/user tenants. The majority of Mesquite’s inventory centers around the Union Pacific Intermodal hub. Product type consists of mostly cross dock and front load space that is suitable for modern distribution requirements. The Garland submarket’s product type is more diverse, ranging from 380
multi-tenant office showroom/flex and manufacturing space to warehouse distribution, and is comprised of both older and newer building stock. Historically, the Mesquite submarket’s construction activity has been almost exclusively build to suits, however, there has recently been a shift and speculative developments are starting to balance construction activity. In Garland, developers are actively seeking redevelopment opportunities, and recent speculative developments in both the Garland and Mesquite submarkets have experienced healthy leasing velocity.
OVER THE NEXT 9 MONTHS, MESQUITE WILL DELIVER 2.3 MSF OF PRODUCT, THE MOST NEW INVENTORY THE SUBMARKET HAS SEEN IN TEN YEARS. 75
RISCO
ALLEN
75
PLANO
MURPHY
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS
SON
RICHARDSON
• Overall vacancy for the Garland and Mesquite submarkets combined sustained its 2017 record low at 7.5% for the first half of 2018 • Despite having zero new supply deliver in both Garland and Mesquite for the first half of the year, the combined submarkets are expected to deliver 2.1 MSF by year-end. • Mesquite’s 2.7% increase in overall vacancy is a direct result of Shippers moving out of 420K SF at Eastpoint Business Center • Exeter Property Group has begun construction on 3 speculative buildings in Mesquite totaling nearly 1 MSF
75
30
GARLAND
635
12
HIGHLAND PARK
30
75
DALLAS
80
MESQUITE
5E
FORNEY
45
12
175
20
BALCH SPRINGS
20
HUTCHINS
35E
175
45
LANCASTER
WILMER
35E
48 Q2 2018
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