Australian Industrial Horizons

14

LOGISTICS & INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH | INDUSTRIAL HORIZONS

TAKE-UP & YEARS REMAINING Our estimates suggest that industrial land take-up in Melbourne has averaged approximately 260 hectares per annum between 2019 and 2023, peaking at approximately 325 hectares in 2022. Based on deals completed so far this year, take-up in 2024 is expected to total a little over 140 hectares and reflects the normalisation of demand and lower pre-commitment activity. Take-up has been most pronounced within the West submarket, averaging just over 150 hectares per annum since 2019, followed by the South East submarket at approximately 60 hectares per annum. Years Remaining Based on recent take-up trends, there are 4.1 years of active land supply remaining within the Melbourne market while taking into consideration all vacant industrial-zoned land, it’s closer to 12.2 years. As highlighted earlier, a large share of land is owned by owners who are not able to make this land available for development. Considering this, there are less than three years of active land supply remaining. The scope for future industrial land to be brought online is most pronounced in Melbourne and includes land to the North around the planned Beverage Intermodal Freight Terminal. However, the timing and quantum of industrial land within this area remains uncertain at this stage.

Melbourne Industrial Land Take-up (hectares)

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2014 2015 2016 2017

2018 2019 2020 2021

2022 2023 2024

10-Year Average

Melbourne Industrial Land Years Remaining

Active Land Supply

Total Land Supply

Land Remaining (hectares)

1,077

3,169

Average Annual Take-up – Base Case (hectares)

263

263

Years of Land Supply Remaining

4.1

12.1