Logistics & Industrial Occupier Market Outlook 2024

Is it equal at a city and submarket level? For 2024, supply is forecast to be evenly split between the Sydney and Melbourne markets at approximately 1.0 million sqm respectively, while Brisbane and Perth will record supply completions above historical benchmarks. Alternatively, supply in Adelaide is subdued and reflects it being more of a pre-commitment market. At a submarket level, Melbourne's West and Sydney's Outer West are anticipated to account for over a third of the national supply pipeline in 2024 and 2025. Elsewhere, supply over the next two years will also be strong in Melbourne's North (735,000 sqm), Brisbane's South (590,000 sqm), Sydney's South West (560,000 sqm).

Impacts of Increasing Supply

Figure 12. 2024-2025 Share of Supply by Capital City

4%

4%

33%

21%

In response to an unprecedented run of elevated occupier demand, developers have responded with a strong level of supply forecast in 2024 and 2025. At this stage, we are tracking approximately 2.8 million sqm of supply in 2024, followed by a further 3.8 million sqm in 2025. However, the timing of some projects remains uncertain given continued planning and servicing

delays, while some projects are likely to only proceed once a pre-committment has been secured. The big shift in supply has been the increased delivery of speculative supply, with just over 1.7 million sqm in the pipeline for 2024, while for 2025, we are tracking a similar volume.

38%

Figure 11. Australian L&I Supply (sqm) - Speculative v Design & Construct (D&C)

Sydney Adelaide

Melbourne

Brisbane

Perth

Forecast

4,000,000

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

3,500,000

3,000,000

Figure 13. 2024-2025 Submarket Supply (sqm)

2,500,000

1,400,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

500,000

800,000

0

600,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

400,000

Speculative D&C

200,000

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

0

East

East

West

West

West

West

North

North

North

North

South

South

South

South East

Inner North

M1 Corridor

North West

Outer West

South West

Outer North

Trade Coast

Central West

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Perth

Adelaide

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

Includes pre-committed and speculative supply

17 | CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD | LOGISTICS & INDUSTRIAL

OCCUPIER MARKET 2024 OUTLOOK | 18