22025_The Future of UK Housing Supply_v2

F U T U R E O F C I T I E S To understand what our cities might look like in the future, we used trend spotting, logical inference, and scenario-based methods to arrive at a basket of possible futures, which we then analysed to determine the likelihood that they will occur.

In the analysis, we identified three high-impact certainties, which are baked into all subsequent thinking. These are factors over which we have relative certainty and that will affect the status quo. We also identify two ‘critical uncertainties’ around which we frame our scenario analysis. These are factors that will be important for the city of the future, but over which there is a high degree of directional uncertainty, and hence unpredictability.

Futurology sits at the heart of our method. At its simplest, this has been described as developing an understanding of what is likely to stay the same and what might feasibly change based on our knowledge of technology and social undercurrents.

UNCERTAINTIES

CERTAINTIES

ENVIRONMENT & ENERGY

THE RATE OF URBANISATION (OR DEURBANISATION);

AUTOMATION

THE EXTENT TO WHICH WE ADOPT VIRTUALISATION IN OUR LIVES AND WORK

SOCIAL CHANGE

3 The Future of UK Housing Supply |